Yeah, it will fit with a little trimming of either the side trim on the hatch or the spoiler itself. I've been watching for these for a while, they're always listed for like $80 or more... and I don't have a decent u-pull yard near me unless I drive out to PA.
Got my spoiler! It is indeed 2nd gen... the paperwork refers to '94 and up, in JDM years, of course. It's brand new, in the original Subaru box, all hardware, gaskets & instructions included. The instructions have a template to cut out and tape to the tailgate for screw hole location... which might work for the outers, the middle attach point looks like it wants to live right where the top window trim is on the earlier car. I'll probably just go with double-sided tape for now.
On my Impreza, I used silicone sealant from Home Depot to attach my hatch spoiler. Not sure if that's something you'd want to try, but it worked perfectly. In my case, the spoiler sits over the glass, so the silicone is actually on the glass.